Where the Pacific sits on the ENSO spectrum, by NOAA’s Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) — the 3-month average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the tropical Pacific. El Niño (ONI ≥ +0.5) and La Niña (ONI ≤ −0.5) each tilt the odds for U.S. growing-season temperature and precipitation.
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The tropical Pacific warms. U.S. winters tend to run wetter and cooler across the southern tier (Southern Plains, Gulf, Southeast) and milder, drier across the northern Corn Belt and Plains. Often eases Southern Plains / Southwest drought — favorable for winter wheat — and tends toward a quieter Atlantic hurricane season.
The tropical Pacific cools. U.S. winters tend to run drier and warmer across the south — raising drought risk in the Southern Plains and Southwest (stress for winter wheat) — and wetter, cooler across the northern Corn Belt, Great Lakes, and Pacific Northwest. Tends toward a more active Atlantic hurricane season.
No strong Pacific signal. ENSO provides little seasonal steering, so outlooks lean on other climate drivers and generally carry lower confidence.
NOAA CPC. Impacts are multi-year tendencies, not a forecast for any single season.